Dubai off-plan sales figures: why four reports give four answers

Dubai off-plan sales figures disagree because each report counts a different thing. One includes only homes, another includes off-plan resales, a third adds rentals or offices to its total, and a fourth counts value rather than units. For September 2026 the off-plan figure ranges from AED 12.27 billion to AED 15.5 billion depending on the source, and none of them is wrong. A buyer who reads one headline and treats it as the market has measured the report, not the market.

Three checks make any monthly figure usable. Ask what is in the scope, whether off-plan resales are counted alongside developer sales, and how much of the month came from a single project. The third matters more than most readers expect: in August 2026 one development supplied 13.5 per cent of every home sale in Dubai. The sections below work through each check using the September data.

Four reports, one month, four answers

All four reports below draw on Dubai Land Department (DLD) registrations, directly or through a data provider. They still produce different numbers for the same month.

Report	Period and data cut	Basis	Off-plan figure	Wider total
Projectory	1 to 30 September 2026, data as at 2 October	DLD home-sale registrations, homes only, off-plan including resales	6,960 homes, AED 12.27bn	10,108 homes, AED 21.30bn
Truhauz	September 2026, DLD figures published 1 October	Sales only, by Truhauz's own calculation	7,476 deals (65.4 per cent), AED 13.63bn	11,430 sales, AED 29.66bn, inside a AED 50.78bn headline that also counts mortgages and gifts
White & Co	September 2026, Property Monitor data as of 6 October	Residential off-plan, developer sales plus off-plan resales	7,144 transactions, AED 14.21bn	36,391 transactions across four categories, AED 25.81bn
AGBI	September 2026, DLD data	Off-plan homes set against resale homes	AED 15.5bn	AED 13.9bn of resale homes

The spread is a matter of definition and timing. The data cuts differ by up to five days, and DLD can add or correct registrations after month-end, so even identical definitions would not match to the last unit. Projectory states that its off-plan figure includes both initial sales and resales. White & Co says its off-plan line combines developer sales with later off-plan resales, and its 36,391 transactions include new rental contracts, which are not sales at all. Truhauz reports a headline of AED 50.78 billion across 16,490 transactions, then separates out the AED 29.66 billion that was sales; the rest is mortgages and gifts.

What each report is counting

Four questions separate one definition from another.

Which property types are in. Projectory covers apartments, villas, stacked townhouses and hotel apartments, and excludes land, complete buildings and commercial property. A report that adds offices or land will show a larger total with no change in the housing market.

Whether non-sales sit in the total. White & Co's wider figure includes rental contracts and office resales. Truhauz's headline includes mortgages and gifts. A total that includes them measures activity in the property system, which is a different question from how many homes were bought.

Whether off-plan means primary only. DLD classifies a registration as off-plan or ready by its registration type. An off-plan resale, where an existing buyer sells their place in a project before completion, still carries the off-plan label. Reports that fold these in report more off-plan activity than the developers sold. Anyone curious about how those transfers work can read the Serene Bay explainer on selling off-plan before handover.

Whether the number is a count or a value. Value follows price as well as volume. In September 2026 Projectory reports off-plan counts down 15.7 per cent on August while off-plan value fell 19.8 per cent, so the average value per home fell as well.

One project can move a month

The second check is concentration. Dubai registers each launch under one or more DLD project numbers, and a single large development with an active sales campaign can dominate a month. Projectory's August report records Azizi Venice at 1,503 home sales across 16 DLD project numbers, which was 13.5 per cent of all August home sales and 18.2 per cent of off-plan sales. Its September report puts the same development at 454.

Home sales registered by DLD	August 2026	September 2026	Change
Azizi Venice	1,503	454	down 1,049
All other Dubai homes	9,660	9,654	down 6
Dubai total	11,163	10,108	down 1,055

Source: Projectory, using revised August figures.

Read the last column twice. Of the 1,055 fall in monthly home sales between August and September, 1,049 came from one development. Everything else in Dubai was flat to within six registrations. A commentary that describes the month as a broad cooling would be describing a pattern the data does not show, and one that described August as a broad surge would have made the opposite error.

None of this makes the market healthy or weak. It makes the monthly headline a poor instrument for that judgement.

Reading Dubai off-plan sales figures against the prior year

Concentration explains the month-on-month move. It does not explain the year-on-year one. Projectory reports 10,108 home sales in September 2026 against 19,032 in September 2025, a fall of 46.9 per cent, and registered value down 51.3 per cent from AED 43.73 billion to AED 21.30 billion. Truhauz describes September as about 20.4 per cent below the year's own nine-month monthly average.

Those comparisons use the same registrations and the same scope on both sides, which is why they carry more weight than a cross-report comparison. The honest reading is that activity in 2026 is well below the pace of the year before, while the month-to-month movement in September was mostly one project.

Price points in the same direction but more gently. AGBI reports that the median off-plan apartment price fell nearly 5 per cent year on year to AED 1,703 per square foot in September. Medians describe the homes that happened to sell in a month, not the same homes sold twice, so a change in the mix of projects can move them. They are an indication, not a price index.

Three checks before trusting a monthly figure

1. Find the definition. A credible report states which registrations it counts, which property types it excludes and whether resales are inside the off-plan line. If it does not say, treat the figure as unverified.
2. Look for the top project. Reports that name the leading development let you subtract it. If the rest of the market moved by a few hundred units in either direction, the headline is about one launch.
3. Compare like with like. A count from one provider cannot be set beside a value from another. Compare the same provider's September with its own August and its own September a year earlier.

Registrations also arrive late. Projectory notes that DLD can add or correct registrations after month-end, and that figures are not seasonally adjusted. August had 20 available weekdays against 23 in July, about 13 per cent fewer working days before any change in demand.

What this means for a buyer comparing developers

Few buyers decide on a monthly market figure, but many are influenced by it. A headline that says sales have collapsed invites a wait for lower prices. A headline that says a project sold 1,500 homes in a month suggests demand that the project's neighbours may not share. Both inferences rest on a number whose scope the buyer has not checked.

The more reliable evidence sits closer to the purchase. It is the registered price per square foot of comparable units in comparable locations, the developer's delivery record, the payment schedule and the escrow arrangement. Those are specific to a project and a developer, and no monthly total can stand in for them.

Sales figures are best used as context, never as the reason to buy or to wait. They tell a buyer how busy the market was, in one defined slice, in one month. They do not say whether a particular unit is priced fairly, and the gap between those two questions is where most of the avoidable mistakes are made.